Agriculture Land Value Trends
In a nutshell:
A complicated ag market landscape influenced by the environment of lower commodity prices coupled with elevated input costs and increasing interest rates, is exerting pressure on the overall profitability of select agricultural operations across the state. Meanwhile, implementations of SGMA continue to impose threat to the productivity of farmland, particularly in the Central Valley. Collectively, these factors are contributing to a cooling effect on land values, reflecting economic conditions, market dynamics, and regulatory challenges.
Traditionally, farmland values hold a direct relationship with the economics, crop productivity and property features. However, as of recently, several macroeconomic measures indicate farmland values have become less correlated with the farm-related characteristics and are becoming more associated with the economics of the operations. Land values change as the probability of future cash flows changes.
In California's agricultural real estate sector, the near future presents a landscape that is both dynamic and challenging for some, while also revealing substantial opportunities. Despite these economic challenges, farmland investments exhibit resilience and maintain their appeal, offering unique advantages such as inflation protection and long-term growth potential. As with any investment, adopting a well-researched, diversified, and patient approach is crucial for navigating the hurdles and reaping the rewards of the agricultural investment landscape. In the end, farmland isn't just an asset; it's a connection to the vital industry that sustains us all.
As we navigate the complexities of the anticipated 2024 market, it becomes crucial to align with experienced real estate experts who understand the intricacies of this evolving landscape. We encourage you to reach out to us for an in-depth exploration of these insights to stay ahead of the trends and learn how our expertise can steer you towards successful outcomes.
Land value information is derived from Terra West Group’s proprietary transaction database in conjunction with the annual Trends® in Agricultural Land and Lease Values report from the California Chapter, ASFMRA with permission. The full report is available at www.calasfmra.com
North San Joaquin Valley
(San Joaquin, Stanislaus & Merced Counties)
| PERMANENT PLANTINGS | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds (Tier I) | $30,000 - $44,000 | 15% - 22% | Moderate | Decreasing |
| Almonds (Tier II) | $27,000 - $34,000 | 15% - 22% | Limited | Decreasing |
| Almonds (Tier III) | $15,000 - $23,500 | 8% - 15% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Almonds (Tier IV) | $13,500 - $17,000 | 8% - 12% | Limited | Decreasing |
| Walnuts (Tier I & II) | $25,000 - $35,000 | 15% - 22% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Walnuts (Tier III & IV) | $8,000 - $22,000 | 8% - 15% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Pistachios | $17,000 - $30,000 | 15% - 22% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Cherries | $17,800 - $34,000 | 15% - 22% | Limited | Decreasing |
| Wine Grapes (Districts 6 NE,11,12 & 17) | $15,500 - $35,000 | 8% - 20% | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| RANGELAND | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Permanent Planting Potential | $3,000 - $7,500 | N/A | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| Grazing Only | $500 - $3,000 | $10 - $50 | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| CROPLAND (SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY) | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| North San Joaquin | $8,000 - $18,000 | $200 - $450 | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Lodi Region | $18,000 - $21,500 | $200 - $450 | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Delta | $8,000 - $16,500 | $125 - $700 | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| CROPLAND (STANISLAUS COUNTY) | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Eastside | $25,000 - $38,000 | $300 - $600 | Limited | Stable |
| Westside | $24,000 - $35,000 | $300 - $500 | Limited | Stable |
| Federal Districts and/or Well Water | $6,000 - $11,000 | N/A | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| CROPLAND (MERCED COUNTY) | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Merced ID & CCID | $21,500 - $28,000 | $250 - $800 | Limited | Decreasing |
| Well & District Water | $12,000 - $22,000 | $150 - $800 | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Federal Districts and/or Well Water | N/A | N/A | None | Decreasing |
| DAIRIES | PER MILK COW | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Without Underlying Land | N/A | $12 - $18 | None | Decreasing |
Central San Joaquin Valley
(Fresno & Madera Counties)
| PERMANENT PLANTINGS | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds (Eastside) - District Water | $21,000 - $42,000 | N/A | Moderate | Stable |
| Almonds (Eastside) - No District Water | $12,000 - $22,000 | N/A | Very Limited | Sl. Declining - Stable |
| Almonds (Westside) | $8,200 - $12,000 | N/A | Very Limited | Declining |
| Pistachios | $8,000 - $50,000 | 15%-20% | Limited | Declining |
| Tree Fruit | $25,000 - $35,000 | $750 - $1,000 | Limited | Stable |
| Citrus | $24,000 - $50,000 | $650 - $850 | Moderate | Stable |
| Raisin Grapes | $23,000 - $32,000 | 10% - 20% | Moderate | Sl. Declining |
| Table Grapes | $20,000 - $31,000 | N/A | Very Limited | Declining |
| Wine Grapes | $20,000 - $28,000 | N/A | Very Limited | Declining |
| Vineyards - No District Water | $12,000 - $18,000 | N/A | Limited | Declining |
| RANGELAND | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Westside | $300 - $1,000 | $5 - $15 | Very Limited | Stable |
| Eastside | $1,200 - $2,500 | $15 - $30 | Limited | Stable |
| CROPLAND (FRESNO COUNTY) | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| USBR West | $6,500 - $8,500 | $175 - $350 | Moderate | Declining |
| Exchange Contractor Districts | $18,000 - $28,000 | $250 - $450 | Very Limited | Sl. Declining |
| Districts | $20,000 - $36,000 | $200 - $400 | Moderate | Sl. Increasing |
| Well Water, No District | $8,000 - $15,000 | $150 - $350 | Very Limited | Stable - Sl. Declining |
| CROPLAND (MADERA COUNTY) | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Districts | $18,000 - $20,000 | $150 - $250 | Very Limited | Sl. Declining |
| Well Water, No District | $6,000 - $12,000 | $75 - $150 | Very Limited | Stable |
| DAIRIES | PER MILK COW | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Newer - Without Underlying Land | $700 - $2,400 | $10 - $22 | Limited | Stable |
| Older - Without Underlying Land | $700 - $1,400 | $5 - $15 | Limited | Stable |
Sacramento Valley
(Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Solano, Sutter, Yuba & Yolo Counties)
| COLUSA, GLENN, BUTTE, TEHAMA | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | $12,000 - $15,000 | $300 - $600 / 20% - 35% | Very Limited | Stable |
| Irrigated Crop Land | $10,000 - $17,000 | $250 - $450 / 12% - 25% | Very Limited | Stable - Sl. Decreasing |
| Winter Range / Dry Pasture | $750 - $2,000 | $8 - $45 | Very Limited | Stable - Sl. Increasing |
| Almonds | $16,000 - $26,000 | 25% - 30% | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| Walnuts | $11,000 - $22,000 | 25% - 35% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Prunes | $14,000 - $25,000 | 15% - 25% | Very Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| Olives | $12,000 - $20,000 | 10% - 20% | Limited | Stable |
| YUBA-SUTTER REGION | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Rice | $10,000 - $15,000 | $300 - $450 | Limited | Stable |
| Irrigated Cropland | $13,000 - $20,000 | $300 - $450 / 12% - 25% | Limited | Stable - Sl. Decreasing |
| Walnuts | $18,000 - $26,000 | 20% - 35% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Prunes | $18,000 - $26,000 | 15% - 25% | Very Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| Peaches | $22,000 - $32,000 | 12% - 25% | Very Limited | Stable - Sl. Increasing |
| Almonds | $19,000 - $30,000 | 25% - 30% | Very Limited | Stable - Sl. Increasing |
| GREATER SACRAMENTO REGION | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Rice | $10,000 - $14,000 | $300 - $450 | Limited | Stable - Sl. Decreasing |
| Vegetable Crops (Class 1-2 Soil) | $14,000 - $18,000 | 12% - 30% | Limited | Stable |
| Irrigated Cropland (Class 3-4 Soil) | $10,000 - $14,000 | 12% - 30% | Limited | Stable |
| Winter Range / Dry Pasture | $750 - $2,500 | $10 - $45 | Limited | Stable - Sl. Increasing |
| Almonds | $18,000 - $26,000 | 25% - 30% | Limited - Moderate | Sl. Decreasing |
| Walnuts | $14,000 - $22,000 | 20% - 35% | Very Limited | Decreasing |
| Vineyards | $12,000 - $35,000 | 20% - 25% | Very Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
South San Joaquin Valley
(Kern, Tulare & Kings Counties)
| SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds | $7,500 - $24,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Pistachios | $9,000 - $35,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Table Grapes | $14,000 - $22,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Rangeland (East) | $750 - $1,300 | $16 - $25 | Limited | Stable |
| Rangeland (West) | $500 - $1000 | $7 - $10 | Limited | Stable |
| KERN COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Cropland (Northeast & Central) | $15,500 - $20,000 | $300 - $500 | Limited | Decreasing |
| Cropland (Southeast) | $13,000 - $18,000 | $250 - $500 | Limited | Decreasing |
| Cropland (State Water) | $5,000 - $14,000 | $200 - $350 | Limited | Decreasing |
| Citrus | $20,000 - $25,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| TULARE COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Cropland | $15,000 - $24,000 | $200 - $500 | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| Walnuts | $17,000 - $24,000 | 10% - 25% | Limited | Stablizing |
| Citrus | $21,000 - $42,000 | $500 - $1,000 | Limited | Stable - Sl. Increasing |
| Tree Fruit | $26,000 - $40,000 | $400 - $800 | Limited | Stable |
| Olives | $22,000 - $28,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| KINGS COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Cropland (North) | $17,000 - $22,000 | $250 - $400 | Limited | Sl. Decreasing |
| Cropland (Central) | $5,500 - $15,000 | $250 - $500 | Limited | Stable |
| Cropland (South) | $5,000 - $10,000 | $175 - $250 | Limited | Stable |
| Cropland (West) | $5,000 - $8,000 | $175 - $250 | Limited | Stable |
| DAIRIES | PER MILK COW | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Without Underlying Land | $0 - $1,500 | $10 - $18 | Extremely Limited | Stable |
Central Coast
(Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, San Louis Obispo & Santa Barbara)
| MONTEREY COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vineyard | $25,000 - $65,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Plantable | $20,000 - $40,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Row Crops | $29,000 - $90,000 | $1,000 - $4,200 | Limited | Stable |
| Rangeland | $700 - $2,000 | $6 - $30 | Moderate | Stable |
| SANTA CRUZ COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Row Crops | $45,000 - $73,500 | $1,700 - $3,500 | Limited | Stable - Increasing |
| SAN BENITO COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Row Crops | $14,000 - $50,000 | $300 - $1,800 | Limited | Decreasing - Stable |
| Rangeland | $650 - $4,000 | $8 - $30 | Moderate | Stable |
| SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Vineyard | $20,000 - $100,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing - Stable |
| Plantable | $15,000 - $75,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing - Stable |
| Row Crops | $30,000 - $75,000 | $1,300 - $4,000+ | Very Limited | Stable |
| Coastal Rangeland | $2,500 - $15,000 | $10 - $25 | Limited | Stable |
| Inland Rangeland | $500 - $7,500 | $5 - $20 | Limited | Stable |
| SANTA BARBARA COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Vineyard | $30,000 - $100,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing - Stable |
| Plantable | $25,000 - $45,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing - Stable |
| Row Crops | $35,000 - $90,000 | $1,300 - $4,000+ | Very Limited | Stable |
| Rangeland | $2,500 - $15,000 | $7 - $20 | Limited | Stable |
| VENTURA COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Row Crops / Strawberries | $42,000 - $94,000 | $1,800 - $4,500+ | Limited | Stable- Increasing |
| Lemons | $43,500 - $90,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| Avocados | $45,000 - $85,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| SANTA CLARA COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Row Crops - Gilroy | $30,000 - $60,000 | $400 - $1,400 | Limited | Stable |
| Rangeland | $2,000 - $10,000 | $15 - $30 | Moderate | Stable |
North Coast
(Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino Counties)
| NAPA COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vineyards - Prime | $300,000 - $525,000+ | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| Vineyards - Secondary | $165,000 - $375,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| Vineyards - Outlying | $50,000 - $165,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Plantable - Prime | $200,000 - $300,000+ | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| Plantable - Secondary | $165,000 - $245,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Plantable - Outlying | $50,000 - $100,000 | N/A | Limited - None | Stable - Decreasing |
| Homesite Entitlement | $0 - $5,000,000+ | N/A | Moderate | Stable |
| SONOMA COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Vineyards - Prime | $90,000 - $215,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Vineyards - Secondary | $70,000 - $135,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Plantable - Prime | $65,000 - $110,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Plantable - Secondary | $25,000 - $45,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Homesite Entitlement | $0 - $3,100,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Sonoma / Marin Pasture | $7,000 - $14,500+ | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| MENDOCINO COUNTY | VALUES PER ACRE | RENT RANGE | MARKET ACTIVITY | VALUE TREND |
| Vineyards (Anderson Valley) | $65,000 - $110,000+ | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| Vineyards (Inland Mendocino) | $15,000 - $48,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Plantable (Anderson Valley) | $25,000 - $40,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable |
| Plantable (Inland Mendocino) | $7,500 - $15,000 | N/A | Limited | Decreasing |
| Homesite (Anderson Valley) | $200,000 - $500,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |
| Homesite (Inland Mendocino) | $0 - $350,000 | N/A | Limited | Stable - Decreasing |