Agriculture Land Value Trends

In a nutshell:

A complicated ag market landscape influenced by the environment of lower commodity prices coupled with elevated input costs and increasing interest rates, is exerting pressure on the overall profitability of select agricultural operations across the state. Meanwhile, implementations of SGMA continue to impose threat to the productivity of farmland, particularly in the Central Valley. Collectively, these factors are contributing to a cooling effect on land values, reflecting economic conditions, market dynamics, and regulatory challenges.

Traditionally, farmland values hold a direct relationship with the economics, crop productivity and property features. However, as of recently, several macroeconomic measures indicate farmland values have become less correlated with the farm-related characteristics and are becoming more associated with the economics of the operations. Land values change as the probability of future cash flows changes.

In California's agricultural real estate sector, the near future presents a landscape that is both dynamic and challenging for some, while also revealing substantial opportunities. Despite these economic challenges, farmland investments exhibit resilience and maintain their appeal, offering unique advantages such as inflation protection and long-term growth potential. As with any investment, adopting a well-researched, diversified, and patient approach is crucial for navigating the hurdles and reaping the rewards of the agricultural investment landscape. In the end, farmland isn't just an asset; it's a connection to the vital industry that sustains us all.

As we navigate the complexities of the anticipated 2024 market, it becomes crucial to align with experienced real estate experts who understand the intricacies of this evolving landscape. We encourage you to reach out to us for an in-depth exploration of these insights to stay ahead of the trends and learn how our expertise can steer you towards successful outcomes.

Land value information is derived from Terra West Group’s proprietary transaction database in conjunction with the annual Trends® in Agricultural Land and Lease Values report from the California Chapter, ASFMRA with permission. The full report is available at www.calasfmra.com

North San Joaquin Valley

(San Joaquin, Stanislaus & Merced Counties)

PERMANENT PLANTINGS VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Almonds (District Water) $30,000 - $45,000 15% - 30% Moderate Decreasing
Almonds (Federal Districts / Well Water) $14,000 - $24,000 8% - 20% Limited Decreasing
Walnuts (District Water) $20,000 - $35,000 15% - 30% Limited Decreasing
Walnuts (Federal Districts / Well Water) $14,000 - $24,000 15% - 30% Limited Decreasing
Cherries $25,000 - $35,000 20% - 30% Limited Sl. Decreasing
Wine Grapes (Districts 6,10,&11) $21,000 - $42,000 20% - 30% Limited Sl. Decreasing
RANGELAND VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Permanent Planting Potential $3,000 - $7,500 N/A Limited Sl. Decreasing
Grazing Only $500 - $3,000 $10 - $50 Limited Sl. Decreasing
CROPLAND (SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY) VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
North San Joaquin $17,000 - $23,000 $300 - $450 Limited Decreasing
Lodi Region $20,000 - $28,000 $350 - $450 Limited Sl. Decreasing
Delta $8,000 - $16,000 $175 - $775 Limited Sl. Decreasing
CROPLAND (STANISLAUS COUNTY) VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Eastside $23,000 - $38,000 $300 - $700 Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Westside $18,000 - $33,000 $300 - $800 Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Federal Districts and/or Well Water $13,000 - $18,000 $150 - $300 Limited Decreasing
CROPLAND (MERCED COUNTY) VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Merced ID $20,000 - $28,000 $300 - $1,100 Limited Stable
Well & District Water $12,000 - $22,000 $150 - $1,100 Limited Decreasing
Federal Districts and/or Well Water $7,000 - $10,000 $125 - $200 Limited Decreasing
DAIRIES PER MILK COW RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Without Underlying Land $1,200 - $2,000 $12 - $15 Very Limited Stable

Central San Joaquin Valley

(Fresno & Madera Counties)

PERMANENT PLANTINGS VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Almonds (Eastside) - District Water $21,000 - $38,000 N/A Moderate Sl. Declining
Almonds (Eastside) - No District Water $12,000 - $22,000 N/A Limited Sl. Declining - Stable
Almonds (Westside) $8,500 - $14,000 15% - 20% Very Limited Declining
Pistachios $10,000 - $50,000 N/A Moderate Stable
Tree Fruit $25,000 - $40,000 $750 - $1,000 Very Limited Stable - Sl. Declining
Citrus $24,000 - $50,000 $650 - $850 Moderate Sl. Increasing
Raisin Grapes $26,000 - $34,000 10% - 20% Moderate Stable - Sl. Declining
Table Grapes $26,000 - $34,000 N/A Very Limited Stable - Sl. Declining
Wine Grapes $26,000 - $34,000 N/A Limited Stable - Sl. Declining
Vineyards - No District Water $12,000 - $20,000 N/A Limited Stable - Sl. Declining
RANGELAND VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Westside $300 - $1,000 $5 - $15 Very Limited Stable
Eastside $1,200 - $2,500 $15 - $30 Limited Stable
CROPLAND (FRESNO COUNTY) VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
USBR West $5,500 - $10,000 $175 - $350 Moderate Stable
Exchange Contractor Districts $22,000 - $28,000 $250 - $450 Limited Stable
Districts $15,000 - $28,000 $200 - $400 Limited Stable
Well Water, No District $5,000 - $12,000 $150 - $350 Very Limited Stable - Sl. Declining
CROPLAND (MADERA COUNTY) VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Districts $18,000 - $22,000 $150 - $250 Very Limited Sl. Declining
Well Water, No District $7,000 - $12,000 $75 - $150 Very Limited Stable
DAIRIES PER MILK COW RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Newer - Without Underlying Land $700 - $2,200 $10 - $22 Limited Stable
Older - Without Underlying Land $700 - $1,400 $5 - $15 Limited Stable

Sacramento Valley

(Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Solano, Sutter, Yuba & Yolo Counties)

COLUSA, GLENN, BUTTE, TEHAMA VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Rice $12,000 - $15,000 $300 - $600 / 20% - 35% Very Limited Stable
Irrigated Crop Land $10,000 - $20,000 $250 - $450 / 12% - 25% Very Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Winter Range / Dry Pasture $500 - $2,000 $8 - $45 Very Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Almonds $18,000 - $28,000 25% - 30% Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Walnuts $15,000 - $25,000 25% - 35% Very Limited Decreasing
Prunes $18,000 - $26,000 15% - 25% Very Limited Stable
Olives $12,000 - $21,000 10% - 20% Limited Stable
YUBA-SUTTER REGION VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Rice $13,000 - $16,000 $300 - $450 Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Irrigated Cropland $13,000 - $20,000 $300 - $450 / 12% - 25% Limited Stable - Sl. Decreasing
Walnuts $21,000 - $36,000 20% - 35% Very Limited Decreasing
Prunes $20,000 - $28,000 15% - 25% Very Limited Stable
Peaches $22,000 - $34,000 12% - 25% Very Limited Stable - Sl. Increasing
Almonds $22,000 - $32,000 25% - 30% Very Limited Stable
GREATER SACRAMENTO REGION VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Rice $12,000 - $17,000 $300 - $450 Limited Increasing
Vegetable Crops (Class 1-2 Soil) $14,000 - $18,000 12% - 30% Limited Stable
Irrigated Cropland (Class 3-4 Soil) $10,000 - $14,000 12% - 30% Limited Stable
Winter Range / Dry Pasture $750 - $2,500 $10 - $45 Very Limited Stable - Sl. Increasing
Almonds $22,000 - $35,000 25% - 30% Limited - Moderate Stable
Walnuts $14,000 - $29,000 20% - 35% Very Limited Decreasing
Vineyards $10,000 - $36,500 20% - 25% Very Limited Stable

South San Joaquin Valley

(Kern, Tulare & Kings Counties)

SOUTH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Almonds $10,000 - $28,000 N/A Limited Decreasing
Pistachios $25,000 - $45,000 N/A Limited Decreasing
Table Grapes $16,000 - $23,000 N/A Limited Decreasing
Rangeland (East) $1,000 - $1,300 $16 - $25 Limited Stable
Rangeland (West) $500 - $800 $7 - $10 Limited Stable
KERN COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Cropland (Northeast & Central) $16,500 - $22,000 $300 - $500 Limited Decreasing
Cropland (Southeast) $14,000 - $20,000 $250 - $500 Limited Decreasing
Cropland (State Water) $5,000 - $15,000 $200 - $350 Limited Decreasing
Citrus $21,000 - $30,000 N/A Limited Decreasing
TULARE COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Cropland $15,000 - $24,000 $200 - $500 Limited Stable
Walnuts $19,000 - $33,000 10% - 25% Limited Stable
Citrus $21,000 - $44,000 $500 - $1,000 Limited Stable - Sl. Increasing
Tree Fruit $18,000 - $35,000 $400 - $800 Limited Stable
Olives $22,000 - $28,000 N/A Limited Stable
KINGS COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Cropland (North) $17,000 - $25,000 $250 - $400 Limited Stable
Cropland (Central) $5,000 - $14,000 $250 - $500 Limited Stable
Cropland (South) $5,000 - $9,000 $175 - $250 Limited Stable
Cropland (West) $5,000 - $8,000 $175 - $250 Limited Stable
DAIRIES PER MILK COW RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Without Underlying Land $0 - $1,500 $10 - $18 Extremely Limited Stable

Central Coast

(Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, San Louis Obispo & Santa Barbara)

MONTEREY COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Vineyard $30,000 - $80,000 N/A Limited Stable
Plantable $25,000 - $50,000 N/A Limited Stable
Row Crops $30,000 - $94,000 $1,000 - $4,000 Limited Stable - Increasing
Rangeland $700 - $2,000 $6 - $30 Very Limited Stable
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Row Crops $45,000 - $73,500 $1,700 - $3,000 Limited Stable
SAN BENITO COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Row Crops $14,000 - $50,000 $500 - $1,800 Limited Stable - Increasing
Rangeland $650 - $4,000 $8 - $30 Limited Stable - Increasing
SAN LOUIS OBISPO COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Vineyard $30,000 - $100,000 N/A Limited Stable
Plantable $20,000 - $75,000 N/A Limited Stable
Row Crops $30,000 - $75,000 $1,300 - $3,500 Very Limited Increasing
Coastal Rangeland $2,500 - $15,000 $10 - $25 Limited Stable
Inland Rangeland $300 - $7,500 $5 - $20 Limited Stable
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Vineyard $40,000 - $100,000 N/A Limited Stable
Plantable $30,000 - $50,000 N/A Limited Stable
Row Crops $35,000 - $90,000 $1,300 - $3,400 Very Limited Increasing
Rangeland $2,500 - $15,000 $7 - $20 Limited Stable
VENTURA COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Row Crops / Strawberries $42,000 - $94,000 $1,800 - $4,500 Limited Stable- Increasing
Lemons $43,500 - $90,000 N/A Limited Stable - Increasing
Avocados $45,000 - $85,000 N/A Limited Stable - Increasing
SANTA CLARA COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Row Crops - Gilroy $30,000 - $60,000 $400 - $1,200 Moderate Stable-Increasing
Rangeland $2,000 - $10,000 $15 - $30 Limited Increasing

North Coast

(Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino Counties)

NAPA COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Vineyards - Prime $300,000 - $525,000+ N/A Limited Stable
Vineyards - Secondary $165,000 - $375,000 N/A Moderate Stable
Vineyards - Outlying $50,000 - $165,000 N/A Limited Stable
Plantable - Prime $200,000 - $300,000+ N/A Limited Stable
Plantable - Secondary $165,000 - $245,000 N/A Limited Stable
Plantable - Outlying $50,000 - $110,000 N/A Limited Stable
Homesite Entitlement $0 - $5,000,000 N/A Moderate Stable
SONOMA COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Vineyards - Prime $90,000 - $215,000 N/A Moderate Stable
Vineyards - Secondary $70,000 - $135,000 N/A Limited Stable
Plantable - Prime $65,000 - $110,000 N/A Moderate Stable
Plantable - Secondary $25,000 - $45,000 N/A Limited Stable
Homesite Entitlement $0 - $3,100,000 N/A Moderate Stable
Sonoma / Marin Pasture $7,000 - $14,500 N/A Limited Stable
MENDOCINO COUNTY VALUES PER ACRE RENT RANGE MARKET ACTIVITY VALUE TREND
Vineyards (Anderson Valley) $65,000 - $110,000 N/A Very Limited Stable
Vineyards (Inland Mendocino) $25,000 - $55,000 N/A Limited - Moderate Stable
Plantable (Anderson Valley) $25,000 - $40,000 N/A Very Limited Stable
Plantable (Inland Mendocino) $10,000 - $20,000 N/A Limited Stable
Homesite (Anderson Valley) $200,000 - $500,000 N/A Limited Stable
Homesite (Inland Mendocino) $50,000 - $350,000 N/A Limited Stable